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S.W.O.T

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20th September 2020, Rational Assessor posted his recent S.W.O.T analysis. kindly allowed us to share it here.

With the boards, chats and twitters having various opinions in what has and what will happen in the Short term future, I have tried to take a more balanced view and create a “SWOT” (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) on GGP as a business. Certainly not looking to deramp or worry folks but, have found that SWOTS force you to look at the potential downsides as well as the upside, as there is no point in ignoring them.

Strengths
Good relationship assumed between NCM and GGP
Hav keeps getting larger (excellent grades and long intervals of Copper and Gold)
GH and CB (what a team!)
Miner friendly jurisdiction
Telfer running out of ore
Price of gold increasing
Solid PI Base (Sticky shares)
Low cost base (few employees)
GDXJ inclusion (attractive to large investors)

Weaknesses
Could dig up half of Australia (other tenements) and find nothing
Cashflow (although GH reckons he has this covered)
Depth of Havieron 1500m+ (more expensive to mine)

Opportunities (Newsflow)
Berenburg estimate
Scally results (AEM, then drilling multiple at any time)
H&P revised estimate (significant change from last)
Presentation by NCM at Denver Gold Forum (21/9)
Presentations to funds by GH (28/9)
Presentation by GGP to Diggers and Dealers (12/10)
Hav Drilling Results (every 6 or 7 weeks) – bigger and better each time (next is 28/10 @23:15)
Newcrest AGM (9/11)
GGP AGM (December)
GDXJ rebalancing (Announce 2nd Friday of December and quarterly thereafter)
GDX rebalancing (Announced 2nd Friday of December ?)
MRE (end of year)
Start of Decline (end of year start next year)
Multiple other tenements ripe for exploration
Ability to purchase further targets at cheap finance rates

Threats (Risks)
News flow dries up or presents bad news
GH or CB decides to leave
Suitability of ore at Havieron, impurities and suitability for merging with Telfer
Other JVs more attractive as closer to Telfer
Hostile takeover before opportunities can be realised
Falling Gold price

So as you can see, there are many things to be aware of, and (IMHO) the opportunities and strengths outweigh the Threats and Weaknesses.

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